Forecasting Crime: Application of Trend Projection Method in Sumenep District

Eza Rahmanita, Luluk Fauziah, Wahyudi Agustiono

Abstract


Criminal activity is possible to happen every day. The police carries out the recording process of criminal reports without any further data processing to obtain a useful solution for handling the crime. One forecasting method can be used to process criminal data in order to produce predictions of crime, so that it can be used by the police as the crime prevention tool. One forecasting method used is the Trend Projection Method. This method matches the trend line to a series of historical data which will be projected into the future with a period of time. This method requires data from previous years so that this study took data 4 years earlier. With this forecasting method, the result of criminal forecasting value is almost close to the actual data. From the results of the testing system on 5 sub-districts for motor vehicle thievery, the accuracy system value was 32%, 5 subdistricts for theft of goods obtained an accuracy value of 16%, and 4 sub- districts for theft of animals obtained an accuracy of 6%

Full Text:

PDF

References


Hardianto, F.N. (2009). Analysis of Factors Affecting Criminality Levels in Indonesia From an Economic Approach, No. 2 Vol. 13, pp28

Sihotang, O. (2013). Legal Review of Crimes with Giving and Countermeasures, Delik

Electronic Journal, No. 2 Vol.1, pp 81. Or 1

Hakimah, M. &Muhima, R.R. and Yustina, A. (2015, December). Designing Application

Forecasting Inventory of Goods with Trend Projection Method, Simantec Journal, No.1 Vol

, pp. 38-48. Or 2

Soesilo, R. The criminal code (KUHP) and complete market-by-article comments. Bogor: Politeia. 1985.

Salahuddin. (2008). Criminal, Criminal, & Civil Code Law. Jakarta selatan: Visimedia

Gustomi, H. (2010). Art and Science Forecasting to estimate or predict future events. Taken on January 18, 2017, from http://www.slideshare.net/hendragustomi/forecasting-1 accessed on January 18, 2017

Makridakis, Spyros., Wheelwright, Steven C. "Forecasting Methods and Applications".

Jakarta: BinarupaAksara. 1999

Mulyani, E.D.S. &Sambani, E.B., and Cahyana, R. (2014, September). Application of Forecasting Procurement of Goods with Trend Projection Method and Single Exponential Smoothing Method, pp 260

Sundari, S.S. &Susanto., AndRevianti, W. (2015, October). Goods Inventory Forecasting

System With Weight Moving Average at The Kids Store 24, pp 598-603

Pieter, P. &Palekahelu, Dr.D. (2013, April). Implementation of Single Exponential

Smoothing on Motorized Theft Crime Rate Prediction

Mujtaba, M.M. &Daryanto ,. andMuharom, L.A. (2010). Criminal Level Analysis System

Using Triple Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method in JemberRegency


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.